This game · 148 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Phoenix Mercury won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 13 points on 5-for-7 (71%), headlined by 3-for-4 from above the break — 6.5 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Jovana Nogic close behind (+6.4 on 19 points).
- Phoenix Mercury created 4.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Phoenix Mercury outperformed expected value by 17.7 points on makes and misses.
- DeWanna Bonner carried the finishing gap — +6.5 vs expected on 13 points.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Las Vegas Aces lived in the midrange (38%) while Phoenix Mercury was at 26% — a cleaner profile for Phoenix Mercury.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 4/4 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 16% of Phoenix's attempts came from long midrange vs 24% of Las Vegas's; Las Vegas settled here more often (24% vs 16%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 16% of Phoenix's attempts came from long midrange vs 24% of Las Vegas's; Las Vegas settled here more often (24% vs 16%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Phoenix Mercury won by 47.0 pts
Phoenix Mercury won the turnover battle by 9 (17 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilson lived in the midrange — 47% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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