This game · 160 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 33 points on 10-for-19 (53%), headlined by 6-for-9 in the paint — 3.5 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Rebekah Gardner close behind (+3.3 on 6 points, 3-for-3 on tough looks).
- New York Liberty created 11.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Dallas Wings outperformed expected value by 10.5 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — New York Liberty created a +10.4 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Dallas Wings lived in the midrange (34%) while New York Liberty was at 15% — a cleaner profile for New York Liberty.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 35% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 26% of Dallas's; New York tilted here more (35% vs 26%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 35% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 26% of Dallas's; New York tilted here more (35% vs 26%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
New York Liberty won by 9.5 pts
New York Liberty won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightOgunbowale lived in the midrange — 46% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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