TSRBeta
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · Final

This game · 132 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

57—70
Seattle Storm
SEA
Storm
GSV
Valkyries
Golden State Valkyries

Golden State Valkyries won by getting the better shots.

Juste Jocyte

led the way with 11 points on 4-for-7 (57%), headlined by 2-for-2 from above the break — 3.8 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Tiffany Hayes close behind (+4.4 on 10 points).

  1. Golden State Valkyries created 7.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Both teams finished below expectation — Golden State Valkyries held up better (5.6 pts below expected).
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Golden State Valkyries built a +5.5 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-7.8↑ Above avg
+7.8
Shot making
-8.7
-5.6↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
0.93
0.96

Shot diet

Golden State Valkyries (16% good looks) and Seattle Storm (8% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Kaitlyn Chen

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

Rim
SEA
5%1/3 · 33% FG
GSV
10%4/7 · 57% FG
0/1 2/3
Paint
SEA
32%11/20 · 55% FG
GSV
28%9/19 · 47% FG
2/4 2/2
Corner 3
SEA
3%1/2 · 50% FG
GSV
6%3/4 · 75% FG
1/1 1/1
Short mid
SEA
16%1/10 · 10% FG
GSV
13%3/9 · 33% FG
1/4 2/3
Long mid
SEA
6%0/4 · 0% FG
GSV
12%1/8 · 13% FG
0/3 0/3
Above breakKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 38% of Seattle's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 32% of Golden State's; Seattle tilted here more (38% vs 32%).

SEA
38%7/24 · 29% FG
GSV
32%6/22 · 27% FG
3/6 2/2

Possession context

SEAGSV
Transition share19%26%
Second-chance share16%17%
After-steal share6%10%
Half-court expected pts/att0.940.94
Transition expected pts/att0.940.96

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Golden State Valkyries won by 17.1 pts

Golden State Valkyries won the turnover battle by 6 (18 total TO).

Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.

SEAGSVEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots58.766.6GSV
Finishing vs expected-8.7-5.6GSV

ESPN box score

Free throw pts79GSV
Turnovers1812GSV
Offensive rebounds912GSV

Process value (pts)

Process total55.472.6GSV
↳ Looks + finishing50.061.0-11.0
↳ Free throws7.09.0-2.0
↳ Turnover cost-11.0-10.0-1.0
↳ Second chance9.412.6-3.1

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
7/17
FG%
41%
Pts
16
Vs expected
-0.6
C&S
2/6
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightCharles struggled most from S.Mid — 0/2 against a 40% baseline.

Paint (non-rim)
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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