This game · 124 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won on finishing, not shot quality.

led the way with 16 points on 5-for-7 (71%), headlined by 4-for-5 at the rim — 2.6 more than expected overall with 71% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Toronto Tempo created 12.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Minnesota Lynx held up better (6.3 pts below expected).
- Q2 swung the look battle — Toronto Tempo built a +6.3 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx attacked the rim more — 46% of attempts in the restricted area vs 29% for Toronto Tempo.

carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 46% of Minnesota's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (46% vs 29%).

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 46% of Minnesota's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (46% vs 29%).
Possession context

MIN ran more early offense in this game.
Minnesota Lynx got 29% of FGA in transition (1.04 expected pts/att) vs 15% for Toronto Tempo (0.97 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard

Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 9.2 pts — SQ edge said TOR.
Toronto Tempo got the better looks, but Minnesota Lynx won the full process battle by 9.2 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMiles's strongest zone was L.Mid — 100% from L.Mid (2/2) vs. a 37% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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