This game · 152 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 26 points on 11-for-14 (79%), headlined by 3-for-3 from above the break — 10.5 more than expected overall.
- Las Vegas Aces created 4.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 22.3 points on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Las Vegas Aces built a +4.4 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Toronto Tempo (46% good looks) and Las Vegas Aces (38% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/7 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 36% of Las Vegas's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 23% of Toronto's; Las Vegas tilted here more (36% vs 23%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 36% of Las Vegas's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 23% of Toronto's; Las Vegas tilted here more (36% vs 23%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Las Vegas Aces won by 29.6 pts
Las Vegas Aces got the better looks, but Toronto Tempo carried the process scorecard.
Toronto Tempo won the free-throw line by 12 pts and the turnover battle by 7. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMabrey struggled most from Rim — 2/6 against a 60% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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