This game · 147 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 26 points on 11-for-15 (73%), headlined by 2-for-2 from short midrange — 5.3 more than expected overall with 73% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Chicago Sky created 0.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Minnesota Lynx held up better (7.4 pts below expected).
- Q2 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +6.2 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx lived in the midrange (34%) while Chicago Sky was at 11% — a cleaner profile for Chicago Sky.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/2 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 15% of Minnesota's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 33% of Chicago's; Chicago tilted here more (33% vs 15%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 15% of Minnesota's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 33% of Chicago's; Chicago tilted here more (33% vs 15%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Chicago Sky won by 6.7 pts
Chicago Sky won the turnover battle by 13 (24 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightDiggins struggled most from Paint — 0/3 against a 41% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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