This game · 125 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 21 points on 8-for-10 (80%), headlined by 4-for-4 at the rim — 6.3 more than expected overall (40% from the rim or corner).
- Las Vegas Aces created 11.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Phoenix Mercury outperformed expected value by 9.9 points on finishing.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Las Vegas Aces created a +5.7 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Phoenix Mercury (26% good looks) and Las Vegas Aces (24% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 4/6 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 18% of Las Vegas's attempts came from short midrange vs 9% of Phoenix's; Las Vegas settled here more often (18% vs 9%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 18% of Las Vegas's attempts came from short midrange vs 9% of Phoenix's; Las Vegas settled here more often (18% vs 9%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Las Vegas Aces won by 25.2 pts
Las Vegas Aces won the turnover battle by 13 (22 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCopper's strongest zone was Paint — 100% from Paint (4/4) vs. a 39% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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