This game · 138 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Portland Fire won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 23 points on 9-for-15 (60%), headlined by 4-for-6 in the paint — 6.0 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Portland Fire created 7.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Portland Fire outperformed expected value by 1.2 points on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Portland Fire built a +5.1 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Phoenix Mercury attacked the rim more — 22% of attempts in the restricted area vs 14% for Portland Fire.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 41% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 31% of Phoenix's; Portland tilted here more (41% vs 31%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 41% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 31% of Phoenix's; Portland tilted here more (41% vs 31%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Portland Fire won by 6.1 pts
Portland Fire won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightBonner's strongest zone was Above — 43% from Above (3/7) vs. a 32% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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