This game · 141 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Toronto Tempo won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 24 points on 9-for-13 (69%), headlined by 3-for-3 from long midrange — 9.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Chicago Sky created 10.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Toronto Tempo outperformed expected value by 17.6 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Chicago Sky built a +8.5 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Toronto Tempo lived in the midrange (21%) while Chicago Sky was at 11% — a cleaner profile for Chicago Sky.
carried the offense at the rim — 8/9 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of Toronto's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 28% of Chicago's; Toronto tilted here more (32% vs 28%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of Toronto's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 28% of Chicago's; Toronto tilted here more (32% vs 28%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Toronto Tempo won by 2.0 pts — SQ edge said CHI.
Chicago Sky won the turnover battle by 5 (14 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightTaylor struggled most from Cor 3 — 0/2 against a 38% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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