This game · 123 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Connecticut Sun won by getting the better shots.
scored with 10 points on 4-for-9 (44%), including 2-for-4 from three — 1.4 more than expected.
- Connecticut Sun created 5.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Connecticut Sun held up better (3.8 pts below expected).
- Q3 swung the look battle — Connecticut Sun built a +5.6 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Washington Mystics got the cleaner diet — 53% rim or corner looks vs 31% for Connecticut Sun.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 42% of Washington's attempts came from the rim vs 31% of Connecticut's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (42% vs 31%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 42% of Washington's attempts came from the rim vs 31% of Connecticut's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (42% vs 31%).
Possession context
CONN earned cleaner half-court looks.
Connecticut Sun at 0.90 half-court expected pts/att vs Washington Mystics at 1.05 — set-defense quality separated more than transition volume.
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Connecticut Sun won by 20.7 pts
Connecticut Sun won the turnover battle by 12 (22 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightGriner's strongest zone was Paint — 50% from Paint (3/6) vs. a 40% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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