TSRBeta
Monday, August 10, 2026 · Final

This game · 143 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

88—97
Chicago Sky
CHI
Sky
SEA
Storm
Seattle Storm

Seattle Storm won on finishing, not shot quality.

Dominique Malonga

led the way with 26 points on 9-for-14 (64%), headlined by 3-for-4 from above the break — 6.6 more than expected overall.

  1. Chicago Sky created 3.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Seattle Storm outperformed expected value by 2.2 points on makes and misses.
  3. The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Chicago Sky created a +6.3 expected-point edge in Q4.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+3.3↓ Below avg
-3.3↓ Below avg
Shot making
-7.1
+2.2↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.02
0.98

Shot diet

Chicago Sky got the cleaner diet — 42% rim or corner looks vs 27% for Seattle Storm.

Zia Cooke

bailed out the offense from the midrange — 4/6 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 38% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 21% of Seattle's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (38% vs 21%).

CHI
38%17/27 · 63% FG
SEA
21%9/15 · 60% FG
2/3 2/2
Paint
CHI
7%2/5 · 40% FG
SEA
21%4/15 · 27% FG
1/3 1/2
Corner 3
CHI
4%0/3 · 0% FG
SEA
6%1/4 · 25% FG
0/1 1/2
Short mid
CHI
21%5/15 · 33% FG
SEA
15%7/11 · 64% FG
0/5 4/6
Long mid
CHI
7%0/5 · 0% FG
SEA
13%4/9 · 44% FG
0/2 2/3
Above break
CHI
24%6/17 · 35% FG
SEA
24%7/17 · 41% FG
2/4 2/2

Possession context

CHISEA
Transition share19%23%
Second-chance share18%15%
After-steal share8%7%
Half-court expected pts/att0.990.99
Transition expected pts/att1.010.99

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Seattle Storm won by 17.8 pts — SQ edge said CHI.

Chicago Sky got the better looks, but Seattle Storm won the full process battle by 17.8 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

CHISEAEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots73.169.8CHI
Finishing vs expected-7.1+2.2SEA

ESPN box score

Free throw pts2225SEA
Turnovers1514SEA
Offensive rebounds139CHI

Process value (pts)

Process total79.697.4SEA
↳ Looks + finishing66.072.0-6.0
↳ Free throws22.025.0-3.0
↳ Turnover cost-22.0-9.0-13.0
↳ Second chance13.69.4+4.2

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
9/14
FG%
64%
Pts
26
Vs expected
+6.6
C&S
4/6
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightMalonga created in difficult areas and delivered — 75% from Above (3/4) well above the 37% baseline for that zone.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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