This game · 135 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 20 points on 7-for-12 (58%), headlined by 2-for-4 from above the break — 2.7 more than expected overall with 67% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Breanna Stewart close behind (+2.7 on 22 points).
- New York Liberty created 2.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 8.1 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — New York Liberty created a +4.1 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Portland Fire lived in the midrange (16%) while New York Liberty was at 6% — a cleaner profile for New York Liberty.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 42% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 35% of Portland's; New York tilted here more (42% vs 35%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 42% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 35% of Portland's; New York tilted here more (42% vs 35%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
New York Liberty won by 10.9 pts
New York Liberty won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCarleton lived in the midrange — 46% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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