This game · 132 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 31 points on 12-for-15 (80%), headlined by 3-for-3 in the paint — 10.5 more than expected overall with 53% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Minnesota Lynx created 10.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 16.3 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Minnesota Lynx created a +4.7 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Los Angeles Sparks (33% good looks) and Minnesota Lynx (39% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/6 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 18% of Minnesota's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 40% of Los Angeles's; Los Angeles tilted here more (40% vs 18%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 18% of Minnesota's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 40% of Los Angeles's; Los Angeles tilted here more (40% vs 18%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 28.1 pts
Minnesota Lynx got the better looks, but Los Angeles Sparks carried the process scorecard.
Los Angeles Sparks won the free-throw line by 16 pts. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightBurrell's strongest zone was Above — 50% from Above (2/4) vs. a 35% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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