This game · 136 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Indiana Fever won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 25 points on 10-for-17 (59%), headlined by 5-for-10 from above the break — 9.2 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Connecticut Sun created 12.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 10.9 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Connecticut Sun built a +5.9 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Connecticut Sun attacked the rim more — 33% of attempts in the restricted area vs 23% for Indiana Fever.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 39% of Indiana's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 20% of Connecticut's; Indiana tilted here more (39% vs 20%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 39% of Indiana's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 20% of Connecticut's; Indiana tilted here more (39% vs 20%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Connecticut Sun won by 1.0 pts
Connecticut Sun won the turnover battle by 10 (19 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightNelson-Ododa found the right spots (50% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — +0.0 below expected on those looks.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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