TSRBeta
Friday, May 22, 2026 · Final

This game · 136 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

69—86
Dallas Wings
DAL
Wings
ATL
Dream
Atlanta Dream

Atlanta Dream won on finishing, not shot quality.

Rhyne Howard

led the way with 25 points on 7-for-12 (58%), headlined by 2-for-3 from above the break — 4.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Te-Hina Paopao close behind (+4.3 on 9 points, 3-for-4 on tough looks).

  1. Dallas Wings created 10.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Atlanta Dream outperformed expected value by 7.8 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q3 swung the look battle — Dallas Wings built a +5.7 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+10.3↑ Above avg
-10.3
Shot making
-13.5↑ Above avg
+7.8↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.03
1.07

Shot diet

Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 55% rim or corner looks vs 37% for Dallas Wings.

Rhyne Howard

carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 27% of Dallas's attempts came from the rim vs 52% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (52% vs 27%).

DAL
27%13/20 · 65% FG
ATL
52%21/32 · 66% FG
3/3 2/2
Paint
DAL
11%4/8 · 50% FG
ATL
8%2/5 · 40% FG
2/2 1/2
Corner 3
DAL
9%2/7 · 29% FG
ATL
3%0/2 · 0% FG
1/3 0/1
Short mid
DAL
15%4/11 · 36% FG
ATL
11%4/7 · 57% FG
1/4 2/4
Long mid
DAL
9%0/7 · 0% FG
ATL
5%1/3 · 33% FG
0/2 0/1
Above break
DAL
28%5/21 · 24% FG
ATL
21%6/13 · 46% FG
2/2 3/3

Possession context

DALATL
Transition share24%23%
Second-chance share19%10%
After-steal share1%3%
Half-court expected pts/att0.951.04
Transition expected pts/att1.101.12

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Atlanta Dream won by 4.8 pts — SQ edge said DAL.

Dallas Wings won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.

Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.

DALATLEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots76.566.2DAL
Finishing vs expected-13.5+7.8ATL

ESPN box score

Free throw pts612ATL
Turnovers1518DAL
Offensive rebounds105DAL

Process value (pts)

Process total61.566.2ATL
↳ Looks + finishing63.074.0-11.0
↳ Free throws6.012.0-6.0
↳ Turnover cost-18.0-25.0+7.0
↳ Second chance10.55.2+5.2

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
7/14
FG%
50%
Pts
16
Vs expected
-1.0
C&S
0/3
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightGray found the right spots (57% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — -1.0 below expected on those looks.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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