This game · 145 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Las Vegas Aces won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 25 points on 9-for-14 (64%), headlined by 4-for-6 from above the break — 8.8 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with A'ja Wilson close behind (+8.6 on 34 points).
- Las Vegas Aces created 3.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 26.3 points on finishing.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Las Vegas Aces built a +4.9 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Las Vegas Aces lived in the midrange (39%) while Phoenix Mercury was at 27% — a cleaner profile for Phoenix Mercury.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 5/6 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the paint vs 34% of Phoenix's; Phoenix tilted here more (34% vs 28%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the paint vs 34% of Phoenix's; Phoenix tilted here more (34% vs 28%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Las Vegas Aces won by 21.0 pts
Las Vegas Aces won the turnover battle by 5 (18 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCopper's strongest zone was Paint — 50% from Paint (3/6) vs. a 39% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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