TSRBeta
Friday, September 18, 2026 · Final

This game · 128 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

103—85
Indiana Fever
IND
Fever
TOR
Tempo
Toronto Tempo

Indiana Fever won on finishing, not shot quality.

Kelsey Mitchell

led the way with 33 points on 12-for-17 (71%), headlined by 5-for-9 from above the break — 12.3 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Toronto Tempo created 6.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 22.5 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Toronto Tempo built a +9.7 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-6.6↓ Below avg
+6.6↓ Below avg
Shot making
+22.5↑ Above avg
-5.1↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.06
1.06

Shot diet

Toronto Tempo got the cleaner diet — 48% rim or corner looks vs 38% for Indiana Fever.

Temi Fagbenle

carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Indiana's attempts came from the rim vs 42% of Toronto's, with Toronto leaning on the higher-value zone (42% vs 31%).

IND
31%12/19 · 63% FG
TOR
42%14/28 · 50% FG
3/3 4/5
Paint
IND
2%1/1 · 100% FG
TOR
13%4/9 · 44% FG
1/1 2/2
Corner 3
IND
7%3/4 · 75% FG
TOR
6%1/4 · 25% FG
2/2 0/3
Short mid
IND
10%5/6 · 83% FG
TOR
3%1/2 · 50% FG
2/2 0/1
Long mid
IND
10%3/6 · 50% FG
TOR
7%2/5 · 40% FG
1/3 0/2
Above break
IND
41%12/25 · 48% FG
TOR
28%7/19 · 37% FG
2/2 1/2

Possession context

INDTOR
Transition share20%18%
Second-chance share7%19%
After-steal share8%3%
Half-court expected pts/att1.061.07
Transition expected pts/att1.041.12

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Indiana Fever won by 10.6 pts — SQ edge said TOR.

Toronto Tempo got the better looks, but Indiana Fever won the full process battle by 10.6 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

INDTOREdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots64.571.1TOR
Finishing vs expected+22.5-5.1IND

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1619TOR
Turnovers1113IND
Offensive rebounds312TOR

Process value (pts)

Process total91.180.6IND
↳ Looks + finishing87.066.0+21.0
↳ Free throws16.019.0-3.0
↳ Turnover cost-15.0-17.0+2.0
↳ Second chance3.112.6-9.4

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
7/18
FG%
39%
Pts
18
Vs expected
-3.7
C&S
1/1
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightRice found the right spots (61% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — -3.7 below expected on those looks.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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