This game · 139 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Dallas Wings won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 19 points on 8-for-9 (89%), headlined by 3-for-3 from long midrange — 8.5 more than expected overall (44% from the rim or corner).
- Dallas Wings created 7.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Dallas Wings outperformed expected value by 7.8 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Dallas Wings created a +10.4 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Dallas Wings got the cleaner diet — 35% rim or corner looks vs 25% for Las Vegas Aces.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 3/3 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 18% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 27% of Dallas's, with Dallas leaning on the higher-value zone (27% vs 18%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 18% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 27% of Dallas's, with Dallas leaning on the higher-value zone (27% vs 18%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Dallas Wings won by 41.0 pts
Dallas Wings won the turnover battle by 6 (14 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightOgunbowale's strongest zone was Above — 44% from Above (4/9) vs. a 34% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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