This game · 160 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Washington Mystics won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 30 points on 10-for-14 (71%), headlined by 5-for-6 at the rim — 6.5 more than expected overall (43% from the rim or corner).
- Indiana Fever created 24.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Washington Mystics outperformed expected value by 10.3 points on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Indiana Fever built a +6.9 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Washington Mystics got the cleaner diet — 53% rim or corner looks vs 40% for Indiana Fever.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 50% of Washington's attempts came from the rim vs 34% of Indiana's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (50% vs 34%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 50% of Washington's attempts came from the rim vs 34% of Indiana's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (50% vs 34%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Indiana Fever won by 13.1 pts
Indiana Fever won the turnover battle by 10 (21 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightClark struggled most from S.Mid — 0/2 against a 39% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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