TSRBeta
Thursday, August 27, 2026 · Final

This game · 127 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

80—73
Washington Mystics
WAS
Mystics
PHX
Mercury
Phoenix Mercury

Washington Mystics won on finishing, not shot quality.

Georgia Amoore

led the way with 25 points on 9-for-16 (56%), headlined by 5-for-8 from above the break — 7.7 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Phoenix Mercury created 5.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Washington Mystics outperformed expected value by 7.8 points on makes and misses.
  3. Q2 swung the look battle — Phoenix Mercury built a +4.2 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-5.0↓ Below avg
+5.0↓ Below avg
Shot making
+7.8
-3.3↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
0.94
0.94

Shot diet

Phoenix Mercury attacked the rim more — 26% of attempts in the restricted area vs 13% for Washington Mystics.

Kahleah Copper

carried the offense at the rim — 6/7 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 13% of Washington's attempts came from the rim vs 26% of Phoenix's, with Phoenix leaning on the higher-value zone (26% vs 13%).

WAS
13%8/8 · 100% FG
PHX
26%11/17 · 65% FG
3/3 6/7
Paint
WAS
34%10/21 · 48% FG
PHX
23%8/15 · 53% FG
5/10 2/3
Corner 3
WAS
10%2/6 · 33% FG
PHX
2%1/1 · 100% FG
1/3 1/1
Short mid
WAS
15%4/9 · 44% FG
PHX
15%1/10 · 10% FG
0/3 1/5
Long mid
WAS
10%0/6 · 0% FG
PHX
11%2/7 · 29% FG
0/2 2/3
Above break
WAS
18%5/11 · 45% FG
PHX
24%4/16 · 25% FG
5/8 1/2

Possession context

WASPHX
Transition share18%29%
Second-chance share7%11%
After-steal share5%8%
Half-court expected pts/att0.950.92
Transition expected pts/att0.880.96

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Washington Mystics won by 7.0 pts — SQ edge said PHX.

Phoenix Mercury got the better looks, but Washington Mystics won the full process battle by 7.0 pts.

Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.

WASPHXEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots57.262.3PHX
Finishing vs expected+7.8-3.3WAS

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1514WAS
Turnovers1716PHX
Offensive rebounds65WAS

Process value (pts)

Process total64.357.2WAS
↳ Looks + finishing65.059.0+6.0
↳ Free throws15.014.0+1.0
↳ Turnover cost-22.0-21.0-1.0
↳ Second chance6.35.2+1.0

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
13/22
FG%
59%
Pts
35
Vs expected
+7.4
C&S
2/3
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightCopper's strongest zone was Rim — 86% from Rim (6/7) vs. a 56% expectation.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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