This game · 125 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Indiana Fever won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 18 points on 7-for-13 (54%), headlined by 2-for-2 from above the break — 4.5 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Indiana Fever created 14.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 2.8 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Indiana Fever built a +8.0 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Las Vegas Aces (22% good looks) and Indiana Fever (17% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of Indiana's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 20% of Las Vegas's; Indiana tilted here more (29% vs 20%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 29% of Indiana's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 20% of Las Vegas's; Indiana tilted here more (29% vs 20%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Indiana Fever won by 28.3 pts
Indiana Fever won the turnover battle by 6 (13 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightYoung's strongest zone was Paint — 100% from Paint (4/4) vs. a 41% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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