This game · 146 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 21 points on 8-for-13 (62%), headlined by 5-for-8 from above the break — 9.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Atlanta Dream created 3.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Las Vegas Aces held up better (3.7 pts below expected).
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Atlanta Dream created a +5.9 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Atlanta Dream got the cleaner diet — 57% rim or corner looks vs 37% for Las Vegas Aces.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/9 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 34% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 55% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (55% vs 34%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 34% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 55% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (55% vs 34%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 10.2 pts
Atlanta Dream won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightGray's strongest zone was Rim — 88% from Rim (7/8) vs. a 58% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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