This game · 140 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Chicago Sky won on finishing, not shot quality.
scored with 11 points on 5-for-9 (56%), including 1-for-3 from three — 1.8 more than expected (44% from the rim or corner).
- Minnesota Lynx created 6.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Chicago Sky held up better (3.9 pts below expected).
- Q1 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +3.2 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx (47% good looks) and Chicago Sky (48% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/6 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 37% of Minnesota's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (43% vs 37%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Chicago's attempts came from the rim vs 37% of Minnesota's, with Chicago leaning on the higher-value zone (43% vs 37%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Chicago Sky won by 5.0 pts — SQ edge said MIN.
Minnesota Lynx got the better looks, but Chicago Sky carried the process scorecard.
Chicago Sky won the free-throw line by 12 pts. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilliams lived in the midrange — 58% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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