This game · 144 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 28 points on 11-for-14 (79%), headlined by 8-for-8 at the rim — 9.7 more than expected overall with 64% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Minnesota Lynx created 8.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished close to expectation on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +5.3 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx (43% good looks) and Indiana Fever (41% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 7/12 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of Indiana's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 25% of Minnesota's; Indiana tilted here more (32% vs 25%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 32% of Indiana's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 25% of Minnesota's; Indiana tilted here more (32% vs 25%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 21.3 pts
Minnesota Lynx won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilliams created in difficult areas and delivered — 58% from L.Mid (7/12) well above the 42% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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