This game · 140 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Washington Mystics won by getting the better shots.
scored with 25 points on 9-for-14 (64%) — 1.6 more than expected (93% from the rim or corner).
- Washington Mystics created 17.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Toronto Tempo held up better (13.7 pts below expected).
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Washington Mystics created a +9.7 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Washington Mystics got the cleaner diet — 64% rim or corner looks vs 34% for Toronto Tempo.
carried the offense at the rim — 9/12 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 56% of Washington's attempts came from the rim vs 28% of Toronto's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (56% vs 28%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 56% of Washington's attempts came from the rim vs 28% of Toronto's, with Washington leaning on the higher-value zone (56% vs 28%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Washington Mystics won by 26.6 pts
Washington Mystics won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMabrey's strongest zone was Cor 3 — 100% from Cor 3 (1/1) vs. a 44% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
Learn how it works →