This game · 137 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Indiana Fever won — the process matched the result.
led the way with 20 points on 7-for-9 (78%), headlined by 5-for-5 from above the break — 10.3 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Indiana Fever created 0.4 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 27.1 points on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Indiana Fever built a +5.4 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Las Vegas Aces attacked the rim more — 17% of attempts in the restricted area vs 9% for Indiana Fever.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 41% of Indiana's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 23% of Las Vegas's; Indiana tilted here more (41% vs 23%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 41% of Indiana's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 23% of Las Vegas's; Indiana tilted here more (41% vs 23%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Indiana Fever won by 27.8 pts
Indiana Fever won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilson lived in the midrange — 44% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
Learn how it works →