This game · 142 FGA|Season model · 293 games · 39,996 shots
Connecticut Sun won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 26 points on 11-for-16 (69%), headlined by 8-for-9 at the rim — 5.9 more than expected overall with 56% of attempts from the rim or corner, with Diamond Miller close behind (+5.2 on 21 points).
- Chicago Sky created 6.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Connecticut Sun held up better (2.8 pts below expected).
- Q2 swung the look battle — Chicago Sky built a +3.6 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Connecticut Sun lived in the midrange (27%) while Chicago Sky was at 14% — a cleaner profile for Chicago Sky.
carried the offense at the rim — 8/9 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 35% of Chicago's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 27% of Connecticut's; Chicago tilted here more (35% vs 27%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 35% of Chicago's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 27% of Connecticut's; Chicago tilted here more (35% vs 27%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Connecticut Sun won by 7.9 pts — SQ edge said CHI.
Chicago Sky got the better looks, but Connecticut Sun won the full process battle by 7.9 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightEdwards was sharp — 56% of attempts from good spots, headlined by 89% from Rim (8/9) against a 57% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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