This game · 132 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 24 points on 8-for-17 (47%), headlined by 4-for-7 from above the break — 2.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Isobel Borlase close behind (+2.1 on 6 points, 3-for-4 on tough looks).
- Atlanta Dream created 23.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Atlanta Dream held up better (9.5 pts below expected).
- Q1 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +7.3 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty (33% good looks) and Atlanta Dream (27% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 21% of Atlanta's attempts came from the paint vs 15% of New York's; Atlanta tilted here more (21% vs 15%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 21% of Atlanta's attempts came from the paint vs 15% of New York's; Atlanta tilted here more (21% vs 15%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 36.2 pts
Atlanta Dream won the turnover battle by 14 (20 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightXu's strongest zone was Rim — 75% from Rim (3/4) vs. a 60% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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