TSRBeta
Wednesday, May 13, 2026 · Final

This game · 142 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots

98—69
Las Vegas Aces
LV
Aces
CONN
Sun
Connecticut Sun

Las Vegas Aces won by getting the better shots.

Chennedy Carter

led the way with 27 points on 13-for-16 (81%), headlined by 10-for-10 at the rim — 10.4 more than expected overall with 63% of attempts from the rim or corner.

  1. Las Vegas Aces created 4.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 12.3 points on makes and misses.
  3. Las Vegas Aces's edge came from rim pressure — 33% of attempts at the restricted area.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
+4.3↓ Below avg
-4.3↓ Below avg
Shot making
+12.3↑ Above avg
-17.4↑ Season best
Expected pts per shot
0.98
0.95

Shot diet

Connecticut Sun (30% good looks) and Las Vegas Aces (35% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Chennedy Carter

carried the offense at the rim — 10/10 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 33% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 29% of Connecticut's, with Las Vegas leaning on the higher-value zone (33% vs 29%).

LV
33%21/24 · 88% FG
CONN
29%10/20 · 50% FG
10/10 3/3
Paint
LV
19%6/14 · 43% FG
CONN
23%4/16 · 25% FG
3/5 2/2
Corner 3
LV
1%1/1 · 100% FG
CONN
1%0/1 · 0% FG
1/1 0/1
Short mid
LV
11%2/8 · 25% FG
CONN
16%4/11 · 36% FG
1/3 2/4
Long mid
LV
14%5/10 · 50% FG
CONN
14%2/10 · 20% FG
0/2 0/3
Above break
LV
21%4/15 · 27% FG
CONN
17%3/12 · 25% FG
1/2 1/2

Possession context

LV ran more early offense in this game.

Las Vegas Aces got 32% of FGA in transition (0.99 expected pts/att) vs 17% for Connecticut Sun (0.98 expected pts/att).

LVCONN
Transition share32%17%
Second-chance share14%16%
After-steal share6%9%
Half-court expected pts/att0.950.93
Transition expected pts/att0.990.98

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Las Vegas Aces won by 41.2 pts

Connecticut Sun won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.

Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.

LVCONNEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots70.766.4LV
Finishing vs expected+12.3-17.4LV

ESPN box score

Free throw pts1520CONN
Turnovers1614CONN
Offensive rebounds128LV

Process value (pts)

Process total100.659.4LV
↳ Looks + finishing83.049.0+34.0
↳ Free throws15.020.0-5.0
↳ Turnover cost-10.0-18.0+8.0
↳ Second chance12.68.4+4.2

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
2/11
FG%
18%
Pts
8
Vs expected
-5.9
C&S
0/1
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightRivers lived in the midrange — 55% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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