This game · 153 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won — the process matched the result.
scored with 11 points on 5-for-9 (56%) — 1.6 more than expected.
- Minnesota Lynx created 1.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Minnesota Lynx held up better (9.8 pts below expected).
- Q3 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +12.4 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx lived in the midrange (24%) while Seattle Storm was at 12% — a cleaner profile for Seattle Storm.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/7 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Minnesota's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 36% of Seattle's; Seattle tilted here more (36% vs 24%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Minnesota's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 36% of Seattle's; Seattle tilted here more (36% vs 24%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 23.2 pts
Minnesota Lynx won the turnover battle by 8 (19 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightJohnson's strongest zone was Rim — 86% from Rim (6/7) vs. a 56% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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