This game · 125 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Connecticut Sun won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 15 points on 5-for-7 (71%), headlined by 3-for-3 in the interior — 4.7 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Phoenix Mercury created 16.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Connecticut Sun outperformed expected value by 5.6 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Phoenix Mercury created a +6.2 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Phoenix Mercury got the cleaner diet — 41% rim or corner looks vs 21% for Connecticut Sun.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Phoenix's attempts came from the rim vs 16% of Connecticut's, with Phoenix leaning on the higher-value zone (31% vs 16%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Phoenix's attempts came from the rim vs 16% of Connecticut's, with Phoenix leaning on the higher-value zone (31% vs 16%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Phoenix Mercury won by 7.1 pts
Phoenix Mercury won the turnover battle by 7 (18 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMiller's strongest zone was Above — 67% from Above (2/3) vs. a 38% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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