This game · 146 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 33 points on 9-for-16 (56%), headlined by 4-for-8 from above the break — 7.5 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Minnesota Lynx created 4.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Seattle Storm outperformed expected value by 10.3 points on finishing.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Minnesota Lynx built a +8.6 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Seattle Storm (36% good looks) and Minnesota Lynx (37% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 4/7 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 26% of Minnesota's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 36% of Seattle's; Seattle tilted here more (36% vs 26%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 26% of Minnesota's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 36% of Seattle's; Seattle tilted here more (36% vs 26%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 12.0 pts
Minnesota Lynx won the turnover battle by 6 (15 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightHiedeman lived in the midrange — 42% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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