This game · 131 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Golden State Valkyries won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 25 points on 9-for-18 (50%), headlined by 4-for-7 from above the break — 4.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Golden State Valkyries created 9.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished close to expectation on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Golden State Valkyries built a +6.1 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Golden State Valkyries got the cleaner diet — 33% rim or corner looks vs 16% for Las Vegas Aces.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 5/7 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 8% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 25% of Golden State's, with Golden State leaning on the higher-value zone (25% vs 8%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 8% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 25% of Golden State's, with Golden State leaning on the higher-value zone (25% vs 8%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Golden State Valkyries won by 26.7 pts
Las Vegas Aces won the turnover battle by 8 (14 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilliams's strongest zone was Above — 57% from Above (4/7) vs. a 35% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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