This game · 127 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Portland Fire won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 18 points on 8-for-14 (57%), headlined by 2-for-2 from short midrange — 3.5 more than expected overall (43% from the rim or corner).
- Portland Fire created 22.5 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — New York Liberty held up better (5.5 pts below expected).
- Q2 swung the look battle — Portland Fire built a +10.3 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty (48% good looks) and Portland Fire (48% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 37% of New York's; New York tilted here more (37% vs 24%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 24% of Portland's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 37% of New York's; New York tilted here more (37% vs 24%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Portland Fire won by 19.2 pts
Portland Fire won the turnover battle by 5 (19 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightJohannes's strongest zone was Cor 3 — 100% from Cor 3 (2/2) vs. a 40% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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