This game · 127 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Golden State Valkyries won — the process matched the result.
led the way with 15 points on 7-for-10 (70%), headlined by 3-for-3 at the rim — 5.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Golden State Valkyries created 0.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished close to expectation on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Golden State Valkyries built a +6.7 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Golden State Valkyries (24% good looks) and Dallas Wings (22% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/2 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 27% of Dallas's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 35% of Golden State's; Golden State tilted here more (35% vs 27%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 27% of Dallas's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 35% of Golden State's; Golden State tilted here more (35% vs 27%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Golden State Valkyries won by 7.3 pts
Dallas Wings won the turnover battle by 5 (13 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilliams's strongest zone was Paint — 67% from Paint (2/3) vs. a 41% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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