This game · 145 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Indiana Fever won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 28 points on 11-for-16 (69%), headlined by 3-for-3 from above the break — 10.2 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- New York Liberty created 9.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Indiana Fever outperformed expected value by 21.9 points on finishing.
- Q2 swung the look battle — New York Liberty built a +3.5 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Indiana Fever lived in the midrange (23%) while New York Liberty was at 11% — a cleaner profile for New York Liberty.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 2/3 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 34% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 25% of Indiana's; New York tilted here more (34% vs 25%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 34% of New York's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 25% of Indiana's; New York tilted here more (34% vs 25%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Indiana Fever won by 13.6 pts — SQ edge said NY.
New York Liberty got the better looks, but Indiana Fever won the full process battle by 13.6 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightMitchell created in difficult areas and delivered — 100% from Above (3/3) well above the 41% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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