This game · 146 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won — the process matched the result.
scored with 9 points on 3-for-7 (43%), including 2-for-3 from three — 1.2 more than expected, with Maya Caldwell close behind (+2.1 on 5 points, 2-for-3 on tough looks).
- Minnesota Lynx created 0.6 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 0.8 points on makes and misses.
- Paige Bueckers carried the finishing gap — +7.0 vs expected on 25 points.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Dallas Wings (19% good looks) and Minnesota Lynx (25% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 3/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Minnesota's attempts came from the paint vs 23% of Dallas's; Minnesota tilted here more (28% vs 23%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 28% of Minnesota's attempts came from the paint vs 23% of Dallas's; Minnesota tilted here more (28% vs 23%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 0.9 pts
Minnesota Lynx won the turnover battle by 6 (16 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightFudd's strongest zone was Above — 50% from Above (4/8) vs. a 34% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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