This game · 141 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 15 points on 7-for-9 (78%), headlined by 3-for-3 at the rim — 5.5 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Chelsea Gray close behind (+5.3 on 23 points).
- Minnesota Lynx created 1.7 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 16.0 points on finishing.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Minnesota Lynx created a +5.5 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Las Vegas Aces (24% good looks) and Minnesota Lynx (15% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.
carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Minnesota's attempts came from the paint vs 21% of Las Vegas's; Minnesota tilted here more (31% vs 21%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 31% of Minnesota's attempts came from the paint vs 21% of Las Vegas's; Minnesota tilted here more (31% vs 21%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 4.0 pts
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightGray's strongest zone was Above — 56% from Above (5/9) vs. a 34% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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