This game · 152 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Los Angeles Sparks won on finishing, not shot quality.

led the way with 23 points on 11-for-15 (73%), headlined by 8-for-10 at the rim — 6.6 more than expected overall with 67% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Portland Fire created 3.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Los Angeles Sparks outperformed expected value by 15.9 points on finishing.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Portland Fire built a +6.3 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Portland Fire (36% good looks) and Los Angeles Sparks (45% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

carried the offense at the rim — 8/10 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 27% of Los Angeles's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 38% of Portland's; Portland tilted here more (38% vs 27%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 27% of Los Angeles's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 38% of Portland's; Portland tilted here more (38% vs 27%).
Possession context
LA ran more early offense in this game.
Los Angeles Sparks got 32% of FGA in transition (1.04 expected pts/att) vs 17% for Portland Fire (1.02 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Los Angeles Sparks won by 7.9 pts — SQ edge said POR.
Portland Fire got the better looks, but Los Angeles Sparks won the full process battle by 7.9 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightLeite's strongest zone was Above — 100% from Above (2/2) vs. a 35% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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