This game · 131 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 27 points on 10-for-15 (67%), headlined by 6-for-7 from long midrange — 7.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Toronto Tempo created 3.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 11.5 points on finishing.
- A'ja Wilson carried the finishing gap — +7.6 vs expected on 27 points.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Toronto Tempo attacked the rim more — 21% of attempts in the restricted area vs 12% for Las Vegas Aces.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 6/7 from long midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 23% of Las Vegas's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 33% of Toronto's; Toronto tilted here more (33% vs 23%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 23% of Las Vegas's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 33% of Toronto's; Toronto tilted here more (33% vs 23%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Las Vegas Aces won by 9.0 pts — SQ edge said TOR.
Toronto Tempo got the better looks, but Las Vegas Aces won the full process battle by 9.0 pts.
Process edge blends expected points from shots, finishing, free throws, turnover cost, and second-chance value — not just who found the better offense.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightRice's strongest zone was L.Mid — 67% from L.Mid (2/3) vs. a 37% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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