This game · 125 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Minnesota Lynx won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 21 points on 9-for-10 (90%), headlined by 4-for-5 from above the break — 11.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Dallas Wings created 6.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Minnesota Lynx outperformed expected value by 13.8 points on makes and misses.
- Q2 swung the look battle — Dallas Wings built a +6.5 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Minnesota Lynx attacked the rim more — 47% of attempts in the restricted area vs 34% for Dallas Wings.
carried the offense at the rim — 10/11 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 47% of Minnesota's attempts came from the rim vs 34% of Dallas's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (47% vs 34%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 47% of Minnesota's attempts came from the rim vs 34% of Dallas's, with Minnesota leaning on the higher-value zone (47% vs 34%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Minnesota Lynx won by 4.9 pts — SQ edge said DAL.
Dallas Wings won 3 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightBueckers created in difficult areas and delivered — 100% from Above (3/3) well above the 33% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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