This game · 134 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Las Vegas Aces won — the process matched the result.
scored with 25 points on 10-for-20 (50%), including 1-for-3 from three — 1.3 more than expected.
- Las Vegas Aces created 1.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 1.7 points on makes and misses.
- Q1 swung the look battle — Las Vegas Aces built a +4.1 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Los Angeles Sparks got the cleaner diet — 38% rim or corner looks vs 26% for Las Vegas Aces.
carried the offense at the rim — 5/6 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 19% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 34% of Los Angeles's, with Los Angeles leaning on the higher-value zone (34% vs 19%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 19% of Las Vegas's attempts came from the rim vs 34% of Los Angeles's, with Los Angeles leaning on the higher-value zone (34% vs 19%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Las Vegas Aces won by 11.0 pts
Las Vegas Aces got the better looks, but Los Angeles Sparks carried the process scorecard.
Los Angeles Sparks won the free-throw line by 14 pts. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightBurrell was sharp — 57% of attempts from good spots, headlined by 67% from Above (2/3) against a 35% baseline.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
Learn how it works →