This game · 123 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Golden State Valkyries won on finishing, not shot quality.

led the way with 15 points on 5-for-8 (63%), headlined by 2-for-2 from the corner — 4.8 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher, with Kayla Thornton close behind (+4.2 on 17 points).
- Portland Fire created 0.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Golden State Valkyries outperformed expected value by 5.6 points on makes and misses.
- Portland Fire created volume from above the break (53%) without the same value as rim or corner looks.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Golden State Valkyries attacked the rim more — 16% of attempts in the restricted area vs 7% for Portland Fire.

carried the offense at the rim — 4/4 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Golden State's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 53% of Portland's; Portland tilted here more (53% vs 43%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 43% of Golden State's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 53% of Portland's; Portland tilted here more (53% vs 43%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Golden State Valkyries won by 22.0 pts
Golden State Valkyries won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightCarleton's strongest zone was L.Mid — 50% from L.Mid (1/2) vs. a 37% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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