This game · 137 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Dallas Wings won on finishing, not shot quality.
led the way with 24 points on 9-for-15 (60%), headlined by 5-for-9 from above the break — 7.6 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- New York Liberty created 6.9 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Dallas Wings outperformed expected value by 7.0 points on makes and misses.
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — New York Liberty created a +11.4 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty got the cleaner diet — 43% rim or corner looks vs 29% for Dallas Wings.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 3/3 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 22% of Dallas's attempts came from the rim vs 38% of New York's, with New York leaning on the higher-value zone (38% vs 22%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 22% of Dallas's attempts came from the rim vs 38% of New York's, with New York leaning on the higher-value zone (38% vs 22%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Dallas Wings won by 1.8 pts — SQ edge said NY.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightStewart found the right spots (50% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — -4.2 below expected on those looks.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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