This game · 123 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 30 points on 10-for-16 (63%), headlined by 7-for-8 at the rim — 5.3 more than expected overall with 50% of attempts from the rim or corner.
- Atlanta Dream created 2.8 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Golden State Valkyries held up better (9.8 pts below expected).
- The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Golden State Valkyries created a +3.4 expected-point edge in Q4.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Golden State Valkyries lived in the midrange (28%) while Atlanta Dream was at 13% — a cleaner profile for Atlanta Dream.
carried the offense at the rim — 7/8 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Atlanta's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 28% of Golden State's; Atlanta tilted here more (37% vs 28%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 37% of Atlanta's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 28% of Golden State's; Atlanta tilted here more (37% vs 28%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 27.1 pts
Atlanta Dream won the turnover battle by 5 (19 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightWilliams lived in the midrange — 47% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
Learn how it works →