This game · 135 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Dallas Wings won by getting the better shots.
led the way with 31 points on 14-for-20 (70%), headlined by 3-for-3 from long midrange — 11.1 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.
- Dallas Wings created 9.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Dallas Wings outperformed expected value by 6.9 points on makes and misses.
- Q3 swung the look battle — Dallas Wings built a +3.7 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Dallas Wings attacked the rim more — 32% of attempts in the restricted area vs 23% for Phoenix Mercury.
bailed out the offense from the midrange — 4/6 from short midrange, a zone most players avoid for good reason.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 23% of Phoenix's attempts came from the rim vs 32% of Dallas's, with Dallas leaning on the higher-value zone (32% vs 23%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 23% of Phoenix's attempts came from the rim vs 32% of Dallas's, with Dallas leaning on the higher-value zone (32% vs 23%).
Possession context
DAL ran more early offense in this game.
Dallas Wings got 30% of FGA in transition (1.05 expected pts/att) vs 16% for Phoenix Mercury (1.01 expected pts/att).
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Dallas Wings won by 28.0 pts
Phoenix Mercury won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.
Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightBueckers created in difficult areas and delivered — 100% from L.Mid (3/3) well above the 40% baseline for that zone.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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