This game · 138 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
Atlanta Dream won by getting the better shots.
scored with 19 points on 6-for-14 (43%), including 4-for-11 from three — 1.5 more than expected.
- Atlanta Dream created 9.3 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- Both teams finished below expectation — Seattle Storm held up better (4.9 pts below expected).
- Q2 swung the look battle — Atlanta Dream built a +13.7 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
Seattle Storm lived in the midrange (18%) while Atlanta Dream was at 7% — a cleaner profile for Atlanta Dream.
carried the offense at the rim — 6/7 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 39% of Seattle's attempts came from the rim vs 46% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (46% vs 39%).
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 39% of Seattle's attempts came from the rim vs 46% of Atlanta's, with Atlanta leaning on the higher-value zone (46% vs 39%).
Possession context
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard
Full process edge
Atlanta Dream won by 24.2 pts
Atlanta Dream won the turnover battle by 7 (23 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightReese found the right spots (93% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — -2.7 below expected on those looks.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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