This game · 146 FGA|Season model · 290 games · 39,575 shots
New York Liberty won by getting the better shots.

led the way with 22 points on 9-for-14 (64%), headlined by 3-for-6 from above the break — 7.0 more than expected overall (43% from the rim or corner).
- New York Liberty created 3.2 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
- New York Liberty outperformed expected value by 6.6 points on finishing.
- Q1 swung the look battle — New York Liberty built a +9.0 expected-point edge in that period.
Shot quality
Shot diet
New York Liberty got the cleaner diet — 37% rim or corner looks vs 19% for Toronto Tempo.

carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.
This is where the shot diets diverged most — 23% of Toronto's attempts came from short midrange vs 8% of New York's; Toronto settled here more often (23% vs 8%).

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 23% of Toronto's attempts came from short midrange vs 8% of New York's; Toronto settled here more often (23% vs 8%).
Possession context

TOR earned cleaner half-court looks.
Toronto Tempo at 0.91 half-court expected pts/att vs New York Liberty at 1.03 — set-defense quality separated more than transition volume.
Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.
Process scorecard

Full process edge
New York Liberty won by 16.1 pts
Toronto Tempo won the turnover battle by 5 (12 total TO).
Turnovers never enter the shot log — a clean process win even when looks were even.
Tracked FGA
ESPN box score
Process value (pts)
Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.
Player shots
Key insightStewart's strongest zone was Paint — 75% from Paint (3/4) vs. a 41% expectation.
Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.
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