TSRBeta
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · Final

This game · 115 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

81—83
Las Vegas Aces
LV
Aces
GSV
Valkyries
Golden State Valkyries

Golden State Valkyries won — the process matched the result.

Tiffany Hayes

led the way with 21 points on 6-for-10 (60%), including 1-for-2 from three — 3.2 more than expected (40% from the rim or corner), with Kaitlyn Chen close behind (+2.3 on 7 points).

  1. Golden State Valkyries created 1.1 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Las Vegas Aces outperformed expected value by 0.6 points on makes and misses.
  3. The game flipped in the fourth quarter — Las Vegas Aces created a +9.5 expected-point edge in Q4.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-1.1↓ Below avg
+1.1↓ Below avg
Shot making
+0.6↓ Below avg
-0.5↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.01
1.01

Shot diet

Golden State Valkyries (26% good looks) and Las Vegas Aces (35% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

A'ja Wilson

carried the offense at the rim — 4/5 in the restricted area.

Rim
LV
23%5/13 · 38% FG
GSV
17%5/10 · 50% FG
4/5 2/4
Paint
LV
16%5/9 · 56% FG
GSV
10%4/6 · 67% FG
2/3 1/2
Corner 3
LV
12%3/7 · 43% FG
GSV
9%0/5 · 0% FG
1/4 0/2
Short mid
LV
16%5/9 · 56% FG
GSV
12%3/7 · 43% FG
3/4 2/6
Long mid
LV
12%2/7 · 29% FG
GSV
10%2/6 · 33% FG
0/3 1/2
Above breakKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 21% of Las Vegas's attempts came from above-arc threes vs 41% of Golden State's; Golden State tilted here more (41% vs 21%).

LV
21%5/12 · 42% FG
GSV
41%10/24 · 42% FG
2/4 3/3

Possession context

LV ran more early offense in this game.

Las Vegas Aces got 19% of FGA in transition (0.99 expected pts/att) vs 5% for Golden State Valkyries (1.02 expected pts/att).

LVGSV
Transition share19%5%
Second-chance share11%9%
After-steal share11%3%
Half-court expected pts/att0.990.99
Transition expected pts/att0.991.02

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Golden State Valkyries won by 9.2 pts

Golden State Valkyries won 2 of 3 process categories outside the shot log.

Free throws, turnovers, and offensive rebounds come from ESPN box scores — complementary to FGA-only shot quality above.

LVGSVEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots57.458.5GSV
Finishing vs expected+0.6-0.5LV

ESPN box score

Free throw pts2325GSV
Turnovers1215LV
Offensive rebounds610GSV

Process value (pts)

Process total71.380.5GSV
↳ Looks + finishing58.058.0-0.0
↳ Free throws23.025.0-2.0
↳ Turnover cost-16.0-13.0-3.0
↳ Second chance6.310.5-4.2

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
7/17
FG%
41%
Pts
20
Vs expected
+2.2
C&S
0/2
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightWilliams lived in the midrange — 47% of attempts from tough spots, dragging shot quality down.

Above-break three
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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