TSRBeta
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · Final

This game · 149 FGA|Season model · 357 games · 48,742 shots

78—90
Toronto Tempo
TOR
Tempo
SEA
Storm
Seattle Storm

Seattle Storm won by getting the better shots.

Flau'jae Johnson

led the way with 20 points on 9-for-15 (60%), headlined by 3-for-3 from long midrange — 5.3 more than expected overall on a night most other looks were tougher.

  1. Seattle Storm created 7.0 more expected points from field-goal attempts.
  2. Both teams finished below expectation — Seattle Storm held up better (5.5 pts below expected).
  3. Q1 swung the look battle — Toronto Tempo built a +6.9 expected-point edge in that period.

Shot quality

Shot selection edge
-7.0↓ Below avg
+7.0
Shot making
-18.6↑ Above avg
-5.5↓ Below avg
Expected pts per shot
1.07
1.03

Shot diet

Seattle Storm (42% good looks) and Toronto Tempo (44% good looks) ran comparable diets with small zone-by-zone differences.

Dominique Malonga

carried the offense at the rim — 6/8 in the restricted area.

RimKey zone

This is where the shot diets diverged most — 40% of Toronto's attempts came from the rim vs 33% of Seattle's, with Toronto leaning on the higher-value zone (40% vs 33%).

TOR
40%20/28 · 71% FG
SEA
33%16/26 · 62% FG
5/5 4/4
Paint
TOR
11%2/8 · 25% FG
SEA
13%5/10 · 50% FG
1/4 2/2
Corner 3
TOR
4%0/3 · 0% FG
SEA
9%1/7 · 14% FG
0/1 0/2
Short mid
TOR
7%0/5 · 0% FG
SEA
14%4/11 · 36% FG
0/1 1/4
Long mid
TOR
4%0/3 · 0% FG
SEA
6%4/5 · 80% FG
0/2 3/3
Above break
TOR
33%4/23 · 17% FG
SEA
25%5/20 · 25% FG
1/3 1/2

Possession context

TORSEA
Transition share30%23%
Second-chance share17%16%
After-steal share3%6%
Half-court expected pts/att1.081.02
Transition expected pts/att0.991.02

Inferred from ESPN play-by-play — transition, steals, and offensive rebounds before each FGA. Not official possession tracking.

Process scorecard

Full process edge

Seattle Storm won by 18.9 pts

Seattle Storm got the better looks, but Toronto Tempo carried the process scorecard.

Toronto Tempo won the free-throw line by 8 pts and the turnover battle by 6. Those stops never show up in expected pts per attempt.

TORSEAEdge

Tracked FGA

Expected pts from shots74.681.5SEA
Finishing vs expected-18.6-5.5SEA

ESPN box score

Free throw pts2214TOR
Turnovers1711SEA
Offensive rebounds1310TOR

Process value (pts)

Process total66.685.5SEA
↳ Looks + finishing56.076.0-20.0
↳ Free throws22.014.0+8.0
↳ Turnover cost-25.0-15.0-10.0
↳ Second chance13.610.5+3.1

Process total = expected pts from shots + finishing + free throws − turnover cost + second-chance value (1.05 expected pts per OReb). SQ edge alone ignores the last three terms.

Player shots

Select a player · click a zone to highlight

FGM/A
9/19
FG%
47%
Pts
18
Vs expected
-1.5
C&S
1/4
Late clk
—
Zones

Key insightMalonga found the right spots (53% from the rim or corner) but couldn't finish — -1.5 below expected on those looks.

Restricted area
MadeMissCatch & shoot (filled dot)Late clock

Expected value is an estimate from public shot data — location, shooter history, and shot clock. No defender distance, closeout speed, spacing, or proprietary tracking.

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